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The problem implies Xn is a binomial random variable, Xn Bin(n, p_n), as this is the context for such limit theorems. We are given two conditions:

Computer Science

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3 steps
  1. Analyze the given conditions for the random variable XnX_n.

    The problem implies XnX_n is a binomial random variable, Xn∼Bin(n,pn)X_n \sim Bin(n, p_n), as this is the context for such limit theorems. We are given two conditions:

    1. pn→0p_n \to 0 as n→∞n \to \infty. This means the probability of success for each trial becomes very small.
    2. npn→∞np_n \to \infty as n→∞n \to \infty. This means the expected number of successes grows infinitely large.
  2. Evaluate the applicability of different asymptotic approximations.

    • A. Binomial: XnX_n is already a binomial random variable. The question asks for an approximation, implying a different distribution that XnX_n converges to under these conditions, not its original form.
    • B. Poisson: The Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution is valid when n→∞n \to \infty, pn→0p_n \to 0, and npn→λnp_n \to \lambda, where λ\lambda is a finite positive constant. In this problem, npn→∞np_n \to \infty, so the Poisson approximation is not appropriate.
    • C. Bernoulli: A Bernoulli distribution describes a single trial (n=1n=1). It is not an asymptotic approximation for a sequence of nn trials as n→∞n \to \infty.
    • D. Normal: The Normal approximation to the binomial distribution (also known as the De Moivre-Laplace theorem, a special case of the Central Limit Theorem) states that if Xn∼Bin(n,pn)X_n \sim Bin(n, p_n), then for large nn, XnX_n can be approximated by a normal distribution N(μ,σ2)N(\mu, \sigma^2) where μ=npn\mu = np_n and σ2=npn(1−pn)\sigma^2 = np_n(1-p_n). The conditions for this approximation to be good are typically that both npnnp_n and n(1−pn)n(1-p_n) are sufficiently large (e.g., ≥5\ge 5 or 10). Given npn→∞np_n \to \infty, the mean is growing large. Given pn→0p_n \to 0, it implies 1−pn→11-p_n \to 1. Since npn→∞np_n \to \infty and pn→0p_n \to 0, nn must also tend to infinity. Therefore, n(1−pn)≈n→∞n(1-p_n) \approx n \to \infty. Since both npn→∞np_n \to \infty and n(1−pn)→∞n(1-p_n) \to \infty, the conditions for the normal approximation are met. The standardized variable Xn−npnnpn(1−pn)\frac{X_n - np_n}{\sqrt{np_n(1-p_n)}} converges in distribution to a standard normal distribution.
  3. Conclude the best approximation.

    Based on the conditions pn→0p_n \to 0 and npn→∞np_n \to \infty, the binomial distribution XnX_n is best approximated by a Normal distribution.

    The final answer is D\boxed{\text{D}}

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