Define the probabilities of success and failure for a single toss.
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3 stepsDefine the probabilities of success and failure for a single toss.
A tetrahedral die has 4 faces (1, 2, 3, 4). A success is throwing a 4.
Let be the probability of success (throwing a 4) and be the probability of failure (not throwing a 4).Calculate the average number of tosses required before a game is lost.
In the context of a geometric distribution, "tosses required before a game is lost" can be interpreted as the average number of failures before the first success (throwing a 4).
Let be the number of tosses until the first 4 appears. follows a Geometric distribution with parameter . The expected value of is .
The average number of failures before the first success is .Calculate the probability that A wins the game.
Player A throws first. A wins if they throw a 4 on their turn.
A can win on their 1st toss, or if A fails, B fails, then A wins on their 2nd turn (3rd toss overall), or if A fails, B fails, A fails, B fails, then A wins on their 3rd turn (5th toss overall), and so on.
The probabilities are:- A wins on 1st toss:
- A wins on 3rd toss (A fails, B fails, A succeeds):
- A wins on 5th toss (A fails, B fails, A fails, B fails, A succeeds): This forms an infinite geometric series with first term and common ratio . The sum of an infinite geometric series is .
Substitute the values of and :
The final answers are:
i. The average number of tosses required before a game is lost:
ii. The probability that A wins the game:
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