Define the probabilities of success and failure for a single toss.

Mathematics

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  1. Define the probabilities of success and failure for a single toss.

    A tetrahedral die has 4 faces (1, 2, 3, 4). A success is throwing a 4.
    Let pp be the probability of success (throwing a 4) and qq be the probability of failure (not throwing a 4).

    p=P(throwing a 4)=14p = P(\text{throwing a 4}) = \frac{1}{4} q=P(not throwing a 4)=1−p=1−14=34q = P(\text{not throwing a 4}) = 1 - p = 1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}
  2. Calculate the average number of tosses required before a game is lost.

    In the context of a geometric distribution, "tosses required before a game is lost" can be interpreted as the average number of failures before the first success (throwing a 4).
    Let XX be the number of tosses until the first 4 appears. XX follows a Geometric distribution with parameter pp. The expected value of XX is E(X)=1pE(X) = \frac{1}{p}.
    The average number of failures before the first success is E(X)−1=1p−1=1−pp=qpE(X) - 1 = \frac{1}{p} - 1 = \frac{1-p}{p} = \frac{q}{p}.

    E(failures)=3/41/4=3E(\text{failures}) = \frac{3/4}{1/4} = 3
  3. Calculate the probability that A wins the game.

    Player A throws first. A wins if they throw a 4 on their turn.
    A can win on their 1st toss, or if A fails, B fails, then A wins on their 2nd turn (3rd toss overall), or if A fails, B fails, A fails, B fails, then A wins on their 3rd turn (5th toss overall), and so on.
    The probabilities are:

    • A wins on 1st toss: pp
    • A wins on 3rd toss (A fails, B fails, A succeeds): q⋅q⋅p=q2pq \cdot q \cdot p = q^2 p
    • A wins on 5th toss (A fails, B fails, A fails, B fails, A succeeds): q⋅q⋅q⋅q⋅p=q4pq \cdot q \cdot q \cdot q \cdot p = q^4 p This forms an infinite geometric series with first term a=pa = p and common ratio r=q2r = q^2. The sum of an infinite geometric series is a1−r\frac{a}{1-r}.
    P(A wins)=p1−q2P(A \text{ wins}) = \frac{p}{1-q^2}

    Substitute the values of p=14p = \frac{1}{4} and q=34q = \frac{3}{4}:

    P(A wins)=1/41−(3/4)2=1/41−9/16P(A \text{ wins}) = \frac{1/4}{1-(3/4)^2} = \frac{1/4}{1-9/16} P(A wins)=1/4(16−9)/16=1/47/16P(A \text{ wins}) = \frac{1/4}{(16-9)/16} = \frac{1/4}{7/16} P(A wins)=14×167=47P(A \text{ wins}) = \frac{1}{4} \times \frac{16}{7} = \frac{4}{7}

    The final answers are:
    i. The average number of tosses required before a game is lost: 3 tosses\boxed{\text{3 tosses}}
    ii. The probability that A wins the game: 47\boxed{\frac{4}{7}}

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