This problem involves calculating probabilities for a fixed number of independent trials, where each trial has only two possible outcomes (death or survival). This is a binomial probability distribution.
Here's the explanation and solution:
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Identify the parameters of the binomial distribution:
- Number of trials (n): The number of animals treated with the drug, which is n=10.
- Probability of success (p): The probability that an animal dies from the drug. Given that 4 out of 20 rats die, p=204=0.2.
- Probability of failure (q): The probability that an animal survives. q=1−p=1−0.2=0.8.
- Random variable (X): The number of animals that die.
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State the binomial probability formula:
The probability of exactly k successes in n trials is given by:
P(X=k)=(kn)pkqn−k
where (kn)=k!(n−k)!n! is the binomial coefficient.
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Determine the required probability:
We need to find the probability that at least 8 animals will die. This means P(X≥8), which is the sum of probabilities for X=8, X=9, and X=10.
P(X≥8)=P(X=8)+P(X=9)+P(X=10)
Step 1: Calculate P(X=8).
P(X=8)=(810)(0.2)8(0.8)10−8
P(X=8)=8!2!10!(0.2)8(0.8)2
P(X=8)=2×110×9×(0.00000256)×(0.64)
P(X=8)=45×0.00000256×0.64
P(X=8)=0.000073728
Step 2: Calculate P(X=9).
P(X=9)=(910)(0.2)9(0.8)10−9
P(X=9)=9!1!10!(0.2)9(0.8)1
P(X=9)=10×(0.000000512)×(0.8)
P(X=9)=0.000004096
Step 3: Calculate P(X=10).
P(X=10)=(1010)(0.2)10(0.8)10−10
P(X=10)=10!0!10!(0.2)10(0.8)0
P(X=10)=1×(0.0000001024)×1
P(X=10)=0.0000001024
Step 4: Sum the probabilities.
P(X≥8)=P(X=8)+P(X=9)+P(X=10)
P(X≥8)=0.000073728+0.000004096+0.0000001024
P(X≥8)=0.0000779264
The probability that at least 8 animals will die is approximately 0.0000779.
P(X≥8)≈0.0000779
3 done, 2 left today. You're making progress.