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A Poisson distribution models voter arrivals at a polling station with an average rate of 5 voters per 20 minutes. Calculate: a) The probability of no voters arriving between 3:10 pm and 3:30 pm. b) T
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5 partsStep-by-step solution
10 stepsPart i
Poisson Distribution
The number of voters arriving at a polling station follows a Poisson distribution.
The average rate is given as voters in 20 minutes.
The probability mass function for a Poisson distribution is .
Part a
Calculate the probability that no voter will arrive between 3:10 and 3:30 pm.
Determine the time interval and corresponding .
The time interval is from 3:10 pm to 3:30 pm, which is minutes.
For a 20-minute interval, the average rate .Calculate the probability for .
We want to find .
The probability that no voter will arrive is .
Part b
Calculate the probability that there will be exactly 5 voters between 9:20-10:20.
Determine the time interval and corresponding .
The time interval is from 9:20 to 10:20, which is minutes.
Since the rate is 5 voters per 20 minutes, for a 60-minute interval, the new average rate is:Calculate the probability for with .
We want to find .
The probability that there will be exactly 5 voters is .
Part b(ii)
Geometric Distribution
Let be the number of church services attended until the first success (finding a wife).
The probability of getting a wife (success) on any given service is .
The probability mass function for a Geometric distribution (number of trials until first success) is .
Part c
Calculate the mean and variance of the number of times he attends church service.
Calculate the mean.
For a Geometric distribution, the mean is given by:
Calculate the variance.
For a Geometric distribution, the variance is given by:
The mean is and the variance is .
Part d
Calculate the probability that he finds a wife on the 5th church service.
Use the Geometric probability formula for .
We want to find .
The probability that he finds a wife on the 5th church service is .
Part e
Find the least integer n, the number of times he attends church service such that .
Set up the inequality for .
For a Geometric distribution, .
We are given , which is .
So, we need to solve:Solve for using logarithms.
Take the logarithm (base 10 or natural log) of both sides. Using :
Calculate the logarithm values:
Substitute these values into the inequality:Divide by . Remember to reverse the inequality sign when dividing by a negative number:
Determine the least integer .
Since must be an integer and , the least integer value for is 21.
The least integer is .
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