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Given P(W₁) = (1)/(4).

Mathematics

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Step 1: Define the probabilities for the first game.
Let P(W1)P(W_1) be the probability of winning the first game.
Let P(L1)P(L_1) be the probability of losing the first game.
Given P(W1)=14P(W_1) = \frac{1}{4}.
The probability of losing the first game is P(L1)=1−P(W1)=1−14=34P(L_1) = 1 - P(W_1) = 1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}.

Step 2: Determine the conditional probabilities for winning the second game.
Let P(W2∣W1)P(W_2 | W_1) be the probability of winning the second game given that the first game was won.
"If it wins, the probability of winning the next game increases by 10%." This means the probability value itself increases by 0.10.

P(W2∣W1)=P(W1)+0.10=14+0.10=0.25+0.10=0.35P(W_2 | W_1) = P(W_1) + 0.10 = \frac{1}{4} + 0.10 = 0.25 + 0.10 = 0.35

Let P(W2∣L1)P(W_2 | L_1) be the probability of winning the second game given that the first game was lost.
"If it loses, the probability of winning the next game increases by 20%." This means the probability value itself increases by 0.20.

P(W2∣L1)=P(W1)+0.20=14+0.20=0.25+0.20=0.45P(W_2 | L_1) = P(W_1) + 0.20 = \frac{1}{4} + 0.20 = 0.25 + 0.20 = 0.45

Step 3: Calculate the probability that the team wins in the second round, P(W2)P(W_2), using the law of total probability.

P(W2)=P(W2∣W1)P(W1)+P(W2∣L1)P(L1)P(W_2) = P(W_2 | W_1) P(W_1) + P(W_2 | L_1) P(L_1)

Substitute the values:

P(W2)=(0.35)×(14)+(0.45)×(34)P(W_2) = (0.35) \times \left(\frac{1}{4}\right) + (0.45) \times \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)

Convert the decimals to fractions: 0.35=35100=7200.35 = \frac{35}{100} = \frac{7}{20} and 0.45=45100=9200.45 = \frac{45}{100} = \frac{9}{20}.

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