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Given P(A) = 2/5 and P(A U B) = 7/10, find P(B) if A and B are mutually exclusive, and if they are independent.

Mathematics

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Answers

4 parts
a

310\frac{3}{10}

b

12\frac{1}{2}

c
0.086
d
0.914
0.349

Step-by-step solution

17 steps

Here are the solutions to the questions.

8 (i)
Given P(A)=25P(A) = \frac{2}{5} and P(A∪B)=710P(A \cup B) = \frac{7}{10}.
The general formula for the union of two events is P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B).

Part a· 3 steps

Find P(B)P(B), if AA and BB are mutually exclusive.

  1. For mutually exclusive events, P(A∩B)=0P(A \cap B) = 0.

    The formula simplifies to P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B).

  2. Substitute the given values into the formula.

    710=25+P(B)\frac{7}{10} = \frac{2}{5} + P(B)
  3. Solve for P(B)P(B).

    P(B)=710−25P(B) = \frac{7}{10} - \frac{2}{5} P(B)=710−410P(B) = \frac{7}{10} - \frac{4}{10} P(B)=310P(B) = \frac{3}{10}

    The probability P(B)P(B) when AA and BB are mutually exclusive is 310\boxed{\frac{3}{10}}.

Part b

12\frac{1}{2}

Find P(B)P(B), if AA and BB are independent.

  1. For independent events, P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B).

    Substitute this into the general formula: P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A)⋅P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A) \cdot P(B).

  2. Substitute the given values into the formula.

    710=25+P(B)−(25)P(B)\frac{7}{10} = \frac{2}{5} + P(B) - \left(\frac{2}{5}\right) P(B)
  3. Solve for P(B)P(B).

    710−25=P(B)−25P(B)\frac{7}{10} - \frac{2}{5} = P(B) - \frac{2}{5} P(B) 710−410=P(B)(1−25)\frac{7}{10} - \frac{4}{10} = P(B) \left(1 - \frac{2}{5}\right) 310=P(B)(55−25)\frac{3}{10} = P(B) \left(\frac{5}{5} - \frac{2}{5}\right) 310=P(B)(35)\frac{3}{10} = P(B) \left(\frac{3}{5}\right) P(B)=310÷35P(B) = \frac{3}{10} \div \frac{3}{5} P(B)=310×53P(B) = \frac{3}{10} \times \frac{5}{3} P(B)=1530P(B) = \frac{15}{30} P(B)=12P(B) = \frac{1}{2}

    The probability P(B)P(B) when AA and BB are independent is 12\boxed{\frac{1}{2}}.

    8 (ii)
    Let X,Y,ZX, Y, Z be the events that a truck is hired from Company X, Y, or Z, respectively.
    Let LL be the event that a truck arrives late.

    Given probabilities:
    P(X)=40%=0.40P(X) = 40\% = 0.40
    P(Y)=50%=0.50P(Y) = 50\% = 0.50
    P(Z)=10%=0.10P(Z) = 10\% = 0.10

    Given conditional probabilities of arriving late:
    P(L∣X)=9%=0.09P(L|X) = 9\% = 0.09
    P(L∣Y)=6%=0.06P(L|Y) = 6\% = 0.06
    P(L∣Z)=20%=0.20P(L|Z) = 20\% = 0.20

Part c0.086

Calculate the probability that the truck will arrive late, P(L)P(L).

  1. Use the law of total probability.

    P(L)=P(L∣X)P(X)+P(L∣Y)P(Y)+P(L∣Z)P(Z)P(L) = P(L|X)P(X) + P(L|Y)P(Y) + P(L|Z)P(Z)
  2. Substitute the given values.

    P(L)=(0.09)(0.40)+(0.06)(0.50)+(0.20)(0.10)P(L) = (0.09)(0.40) + (0.06)(0.50) + (0.20)(0.10)
  3. Calculate the products.

    P(L)=0.036+0.030+0.020P(L) = 0.036 + 0.030 + 0.020
  4. Sum the probabilities.

    P(L)=0.086P(L) = 0.086

    The probability that the truck will arrive late is 0.086\boxed{0.086}.

Part d0.914

Calculate the probability that the truck will not arrive late, P(L′)P(L').

  1. The probability of an event not happening is 1 minus the probability of it happening.

    P(L′)=1−P(L)P(L') = 1 - P(L)
  2. Substitute the value of P(L)P(L) from part (c).

    P(L′)=1−0.086P(L') = 1 - 0.086
  3. Calculate the result.

    P(L′)=0.914P(L') = 0.914

    The probability that the truck will not arrive late is 0.914\boxed{0.914}.

    Given that a truck hired arrives late, find the probability that it comes from Y.

  4. We need to find the conditional probability P(Y∣L)P(Y|L).

    Use Bayes' theorem:

    P(Y∣L)=P(L∣Y)P(Y)P(L)P(Y|L) = \frac{P(L|Y)P(Y)}{P(L)}
  5. Substitute the known values.

    P(L)P(L) was calculated in part (c).

    P(Y∣L)=(0.06)(0.50)0.086P(Y|L) = \frac{(0.06)(0.50)}{0.086}
  6. Calculate the numerator.

    P(Y∣L)=0.0300.086P(Y|L) = \frac{0.030}{0.086}
  7. Calculate the final probability.

    P(Y∣L)≈0.348837P(Y|L) \approx 0.348837 P(Y∣L)≈0.349(to 3 significant figures)P(Y|L) \approx 0.349 \quad \text{(to 3 significant figures)}

    The probability that the truck comes from Y, given that it arrived late, is 0.349\boxed{0.349}.

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