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Calculate the probability of event A using the Law of Total Probability given the following probabilities...

Mathematics

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Answer

A\text{A}

Step-by-step solution

4 steps
  1. Identify the given probabilities.

    We are given the probabilities of events B1,B2,B3B_1, B_2, B_3 and the conditional probabilities of event AA given B1,B2,B3B_1, B_2, B_3.
    P(B1)=0.2P(B_1) = 0.2
    P(B2)=0.3P(B_2) = 0.3
    P(B3)=0.5P(B_3) = 0.5
    P(A∣B1)=0.1P(A|B_1) = 0.1
    P(A∣B2)=0.4P(A|B_2) = 0.4
    P(A∣B3)=0.8P(A|B_3) = 0.8

  2. Apply the Law of Total Probability.

    Since B1,B2,B_1, B_2, and B3B_3 form a partition of the sample space, the probability of event AA can be found using the Law of Total Probability:

    P(A)=P(A∣B1)P(B1)+P(A∣B2)P(B2)+P(A∣B3)P(B3)P(A) = P(A|B_1)P(B_1) + P(A|B_2)P(B_2) + P(A|B_3)P(B_3)
  3. Substitute the given values into the formula.

    P(A)=(0.1)(0.2)+(0.4)(0.3)+(0.8)(0.5)P(A) = (0.1)(0.2) + (0.4)(0.3) + (0.8)(0.5)
  4. Compare with the given options.

    The expression derived matches option A.

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